intuition

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intuition

2023-08-13 12:47| 来源: 网络整理| 查看: 265

To Xi'an's first point: When you're talking about $\sigma$-algebras, you're asking about measurable sets, so unfortunately any answer must focus on measure theory. I'll try to build up to that gently, though.

A theory of probability admitting all subsets of uncountable sets will break mathematics

Consider this example. Suppose you have a unit square in $\mathbb{R}^2$, and you're interested in the probability of randomly selecting a point that is a member of a specific set in the unit square. In lots of circumstances, this can be readily answered based on a comparison of areas of the different sets. For example, we can draw some circles, measure their areas, and then take the probability as the fraction of the square falling in the circle. Very simple.

But what if the area of the set of interest is not well-defined?

If the area is not well-defined, then we can reason to two different but completely valid (in some sense) conclusions about what the area is. So we could have $P(A)=1$ on the one hand and $P(A)=0$ on the other hand, which implies $0=1$. This breaks all of math beyond repair. You can now prove $5



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